Ag Market Commentary
BRUG - Mon Jan 07, 7:23AM CST

Corn futures are currently UNCH to fractionally higher after settling 2 to 3 1/2 cents higher on Friday. March was up 2% for the week. The EIA report indicated weekly ethanol production (and corn use) slowed 31,000 barrels per day from the previous week to 1.011 million bpd. Ethanol stocks were higher by 29,000 barrels at 23.162 million barrels. Those weren’t the market focus. Solid corn export activity is still underway, livestock are still eating corn, and most of the ethanol industry is still grinding. USDA is suspending the release of Friday’s reports (Crop Production, Grain Stocks, WASDE) and will announce the new dates once the government gets funding. Negotiations between Congress and the Administration continued over the weekend.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Soybean futures are trading 3 to 4 cents higher this morning. They posted 8 to 9 1/4 cent gains in most contracts on Friday to start 2019 with 3 straight days of gains. Soymeal was up $2.40/ton, with soy oil 23 points higher. INTL FCStone cut their 18/19 Brazil soybean production estimate by 3.96 MMT due to recent dryness, taking it down to 116.25 MMT. A Brazilian group, Aprosoja expects the Brazilian crop will be110-115 MMT if current conditions continue, which is among the lowest estimates we’ve seen. IEG Vantage sees no reduction, keeping their estimate at 122 MMT (with Argentina at 56.5 MMT). CONAB will be out with their Brazilian numbers on January 10. US and Chinese negotiators met on Monday to discuss ag and energy issues under the 90 day clock. Talks will resume on Tuesday.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Wheat futures are mostly 1 to 2 1/2 cents lower in early trading. They were 2 to 5 cents in positive territory on Friday. Nearby CBT SRW was up 1.08% for the week, with KC 2.02% higher and MPLS up 3.59%. IEG Vantage pegged the 2019 winter wheat planting at 31.513 million acres, nearly 1 million acres below last year. The Winter Wheat Seedings report from USDA planned for Friday is suspended due to the government shutdown, with the scheduled date released once funding is restored. The BAGE reported Argentina’s wheat harvest was 90.6% complete as of Jan 2, matching the normal pace.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Live cattle futures saw 72.5 cent to $1.40 losses on Friday, with Feb down 1.81% this week. Feeder cattle futures were also triple digits lower in most front months, as Jan lost 2.8% on the week. The CME feeder cattle index was down $.46 on January 3 at $145.60. Wholesale boxed beef prices were lower on Friday afternoon. Choice boxes were down $1.98 at $214.51, with Select $1.72 lower at $207.66. USDA estimated this week’s FI cattle slaughter at 520,000 head through Saturday. Cash trade was reported at $123 on Thursday, with a few sales of $122.5-123 live and 195 in the beef on Friday.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Lean Hog futures closed with losses of 10 to 75 cents on Friday. Feb was back up 2.14% for the full week. The CME Lean Hog Index was up 20 cents from the previous day @ $53.25 on January 2. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was up 20 cents on Friday afternoon at an average weighted price of $69.70. The national base cash hog carcass value was 79 cents higher in the PM report, with a weighted average of $48.22. Last week’s FI hog slaughter was estimated at 2.262 million head including a big Saturday kill, which is 140,000 head above last year.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Cotton futures are trading 76 to 100 points higher this morning. They posted sharp 164-169 point gains on Friday on bargain hunting after hitting 13-month lows earlier in the week. March was 0.46% higher for the week. US and China met in Beijing on Monday and will again and tomorrow for trade talks. The US dollar is also weaker. The Cotlook A index was down 120 points from the previous day on January 3 at 79.65 cents/lb. IEG Vantage estimates the 2018 US cotton crop at 18.472 million bales, 116,000 bales below USDA’s current estimate. The Crop Production report scheduled for Friday will be delayed due to the government shutdown. That is also the case for the CFTC reports and the weekly AWP calculation.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management






Market Commentary provided by:

Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
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Phone: 402-697-3623
Fax: 402-289-2353
E-mail: alanb@bruglermktg.com
Web: http://bruglermarketing.com

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